My friend Sean Su and a crew of pro-Taiwan folks are off to Japan to cycle for two weeks in support of Taiwan. They will meet with local government officials and politicians on their journey, and are carrying a list of signatures from prominent Taiwanese to show Japan that even though the Ma Administration does not appear to care about relations with Japan, the people of Taiwan do. Their crew consists of 4 cyclists, a local support van driver, and others. They plan to cycle south from Tokyo, and raise awareness of a bill that some legislators there are contemplating which would create a law similar to the US Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) for Japan. Check �em out at
bikefortaiwan.org. Sean tells me that the next trip will be to India, so stay tuned. I know many people want to participate.
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.
A new study at the US National Defense University catches up to what I've been saying since Ma's "peace in our time" approach was implemented. The TT says:
A new study by a China security expert at the US National Defense University cautioned that there might be a distinct downside to deeper cross-strait rapprochement between Taiwan and China.
Closer ties between the two sides could raise the prospect of �fundamental changes in China�s security challenges,� its author Michael Glosny said.
Glosny said that while other countries would be relieved by the rapprochement, many would also worry that a rising China no longer constrained by a focus on Taiwan would use its increased power to �challenge their interests elsewhere in Asia.�
Yes, it is indeed a brilliant insight that peace in the Taiwan Strait will simply lead to more tension elsewhere, because tension is displaced....
one I noted 18 months ago:
The other lesson to be learned here is the failure to make the cross-regional connections between Beijing's expansionist policies in the Strait and elsewhere. The election of Ma Ying-jeou did not 'reduce tension.' Rather, the KMT's move to put Taiwan into China's orbit, thus 'reducing Taiwan-China tensions', has given China the confidence and opportunity to ramp up tension elsewhere.
Tensions are not reduced. They are merely displaced. And the more tension is 'reduced' here in the Beijing-Taipei, the more it will appear elsewhere. Because the cause of "tension" isn't Taiwan's democracy, but China's expansionism.
Where's the article on me in the Taipei Times? :)
The authors of the study appear to believe that the tension in the area is caused by China, which is the correct belief. Let's hope this realization is currently sweeping our analyst class. It should be clear to all observers that the problems between the DPP Administration and Beijing were not caused by Chen "provoking" China but by China's demand to annex Taiwan. Hopefully the realization that China's territorial demands are the source of tension in its relationships with other nations will begin to include Taiwan.
Another observation: because China is the source of the problem, only change in China can bring peace. Right now, unless China changes its policies, we are headed for a series of wars along its frontiers. How can we get China to change its policies and attitudes?
REF:
Original study here.
_____
Daily Links:
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.
TVBS released its latest poll on identity, the KMT's pro-China policies, and Taiwan independence. Take a close look at Questions 9-14 (translation by ESWN):
Q9. When these economic agreements are signed, are you confident that the government will protect the interests of Taiwan?
9%: Very confident
30%: Somewhat confident
28%: Somewhat not confident
25%: Very not confident
8%: No opinion
Q10. Some people say that the policies of the Ma Ying-jeou government are tilted towards mainland China. Do you agree or disagree?
53%: Agree
39%: Disagree
9%: No opinion
Q11. What is your attitude towards unification versus independence?
61%: Maintain the status quo
21%: Lean towards independence
9%: Lean towards unification
Q12. If the choice exists, would you want Taiwan to become an independent nation or to be unified with China?
68%: Taiwan independence
18%: Unification with mainland China
14%: No opinion
Q13. In our society, some people think that they are Chinese while others think that they are Taiwanese. What do you think you are?
72%: Taiwanese
17%: Chinese
11%: Don't know/refused to answer
Q14. What would you say that you are? Taiwanese? Chinese? Both?
50%: Taiwanese
43%: Both Taiwanese and Chinese
3%: Chinese
5%: Don't know
According to the island's most rabidly pro-KMT station, the public strongly supports independence, totally rejects the idea that it is solely Chinese, and thinks the KMT government is too close to China. Basically, everything many of us have been saying is all laid out there. Consider how slanted pro-KMT TVBS polls tend to be -- likely a methodology issue, not an inherent bias -- this poll is even more amazing. For Chinese the questions use the term ???.
I know of other polls that are showing similar trends -- one is due to be released later this year; can't wait to report on it.
Someone asked me whether the reunification lobby will shrink and the independence lobby grow as time goes by. I think this widespread identification with Taiwan will paradoxically lead to greater polite meaningless noise about annexation. Certainly Beijing will continue to put pressure on Taiwan firms in China to toe the Beijing line, and they are likely to respond by doing so, in order to function in that market. The powerful, growing, and stable identification with Taiwan means that they can do so secure in the knowledge that it doesn't matter. That rising Taiwan identification also means that local voters feel secure voting for local KMT candidates also in part because the KMT is part of that Taiwan identity. Hence I do not see that a growing identification with Taiwan will necessarily translate into less pro-China rhetoric in society at large or KMT losses at the polls.
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.
The DPP made a few comments on the recent diplomatic row over the extradition of Taiwanese to China to stand trial for fraud committed against Chinese nationals abroad....
The Philippine government held an extraordinary meeting yesterday after Taipei lodged a protest over the deportation to China of 14 Taiwanese allegedly involved in an international fraud ring, a Taiwanese government official said on condition of anonymity, adding that Taiwan would monitor how Manila handles the matter.
The Philippine government has yet to respond formally to the protest made by Taipei on Wednesday, including a strongly worded statement that Taiwan could re-examine bilateral relations and suspend exchanges over the controversy.
Let's hope the Ma Administration fires a warning shot across Manila's bow, loud and clear -- Taiwan employs thousands of Filipino nationals who send home megabucks -- assuming we can get a clarification of what happened and what it means per my question below:
The key question which no news article I have seen has made clear is
the terms of China's demands. Were the sent to China as foreign nationals who had committed crimes against Chinese? Or did Manila repatriate the nationals of Taiwan/ROC as
Chinese under Beijing's One China policy which Manila adheres to. In other words, what is the diplomatic tussle about, precisely?
UPDATE: Xinhua says it was
a joint Taiwan/China/Philippines bust. Thanks to anon for the pointer to this article:
The group, headed by Taiwanese suspects, was found to have stolen some 140 million yuan (21 million U.S. dollars) since October by cheating over 450 individuals across 21 provinces and autonomous regions on the mainland, the ministry said in a statement.
With members spreading among the mainland, Taiwan, and the Philippines, the fraud ring first made phone calls from the Philippines to a targeted individual on the Chinese mainland, claiming the latter was involved in money laundering crimes.
_______________________
[Taiwan] Don't miss the comments below! And check out my blog and its sidebars for events, links to previous posts and picture posts, and scores of links to other Taiwan blogs and forums! Delenda est, baby.
